Fireside Chat With Gary Brode And Michael Litt On Counter-Intuitive Inflation

Featured Guests

Gary Brode

Founder of Deep Knowledge Investing

Gary Brode is a renowned portfolio manager and the founder of Deep Knowledge Investing, guiding institutions and sophisticated investors for over a decade. With a career spanning Silver Arrow Investment Management (where he nearly doubled S&P 500 returns), GEB Consulting’s private equity leadership, and extensive media presence (CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal), Gary is a go-to expert for market contrarians and innovators. His insights regularly shape hedge fund strategies, boardroom policies, and investment thesis formation across the globe.

Michael Litt

Managing Partner, Paddlefish Partners

Michael is a widely respected commentator on fiscal and monetary policy, known for incisive contributions to podcasts and forums including NY-AIR. With deep expertise in tax reform, demographic impact, and the mechanics of inflation, Michael brings research-driven clarity to every discussion. His perspective combines academic rigor with practical solutions for institutional investors navigating today’s macro headwinds.

Key Insights From This Episode

Debt Trap Risks Are Rising

The U.S. faces a quarter of a quadrillion dollars in liabilities; interest expenses alone could top $2 trillion annually, locking policymakers in a dangerous cycle.

Policy Paralysis in Washington

Both parties are unwilling to address entitlement reform or spending restraint, increasing risks of inflation and “stealth default” rather than outright crisis solutions.

Housing’s Surprising Role in Inflation

“Owner’s Equivalent Rent” measurement intentionally understates true inflation and is keeping CPI well above 3%, even as other price pressures ease.

Demographics: The Unseen Macro Driver

The U.S., Japan, Europe, and China move through intergenerational bubbles that will determine tax policy, labor force participation, and sustained growth rates for decades.

Portfolio Strategy: Hedge Volatility and Own Energy

Market leaders recommend energy and volatility exposure as essential hedges while warning that real asset values may be skewed by underlying currency weakness—even amidst headline dollar strength.

Global Shifts: Onshoring and Defense Economics

Surging defense spending, onshoring, and shifting trade partnerships (Mexico, Vietnam) are fundamentally reshaping GDP, sector exposures, and relative advantages for U.S. investors.