NYAIR Episode 89
Data: The Big Picture
Dive deep into the pulse of the U.S. economy with exclusive insights from leading risk management authority Dr. Lev Borodovsky. This episode dissects the real drivers behind the COVID-era inflation spike, the data signals that central banks and markets can't ignore, and the outlook for labor, recession risk, and financial stability in 2023. If you work in finance or want a clean, visual breakdown of economic trends without hype, this episode is essential listening.
Featured Guests
Dr. Lev Borodovsky
Chief Risk Officer, Star Mountain Capital | Editor, The Daily Shot
Dr. Lev Borodovsky is a globally recognized risk management leader and data strategist in finance. As Chief Risk Officer at Star Mountain Capital, he brings 20+ years of expertise managing risk across multi-billion-dollar hedge funds, credit platforms, and alternative asset portfolios. Lev helped build the GSO/Blackstone credit business, overseeing $30 billion in risk assets, and developed pioneering risk infrastructure at firms like Credit Suisse, Barclays, and JP Morgan. He’s the founder of the Global Association of Risk Professionals, co-author of the FRM Certification, and the creator/editor of The Daily Shot—a visual macro newsletter now syndicated by The Wall Street Journal. His background in physics, data modeling, and professional education makes him one of the industry's top minds for interpreting economic signals and shaping investment strategy.
Robert Akenson
Managing Director Investment Banking at Riverside Management Group
Robert Akenson is a strategic communications leader with a record of guiding conversations among top investment professionals, founders, and thought leaders. As part of Riverside Management Group, he moderates high-level roundtable events and podcasts that bring clarity and actionable dialogue to alternative investments, complex economic topics, and the changing world of finance. Robert’s depth in branding, business strategy, and communications positions him as a trusted facilitator for industry roundtables that shape informed decision-making in finance and beyond.
Key Insights From This Episode
Fiscal Stimulus, Not the Fed, Drove Inflation
Direct cash injections, unemployment benefits, and other fiscal measures caused the major spike in U.S. inflation—not Federal Reserve monetary policy or quantitative easing.
Actionable Data Outperforms Hype and Narrative
Charts, trend data, and surprise deviations drive market shifts—professional investors want unfiltered data, not opinions or narratives, to inform critical decisions.
Labor Market Resilience Is Key to Recovery
Despite high-profile layoffs, strong margins and consumer spending kept the U.S. labor market robust; underemployment (U6) reached record lows, challenging recession forecasts.
Yield Curve and Job Openings Are Top Recession Signals
The ratio of job openings to unemployment, alongside yield curve inversions, are the most crucial metrics for predicting the next downturn—keep these on your dashboard.
Direct Household Support Has Huge Multiplier Effects
Government support given straight to households—stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment, forbearance, and payment deferrals—had immediate and profound impacts on inflation and consumer cash balances.
Housing and Supply Chain Shifts Redefine Market Risks
Housing momentum faltered due to rate spikes, but multi-year supply chain rebalancing is driving new risk signals for investors—from U.S. ports to European manufacturing pivots.
Access the Full Conversation
Unlock richer context and practical strategies by accessing the full audio and downloading a custom insights deck from this episode. Finance professionals and decision-makers will gain actionable perspectives, clear frameworks, and data-backed explanations to inform risk, investment, and policy planning for 2023 and beyond. Don’t miss out on the deep dives and evidence-based commentary that will drive your team’s next moves.
Soundbites Worth Saving
“The data says that the Fed didn’t cause this inflation spike—there’s no evidence of it. Fiscal stimulus, direct cash to households, is what the data shows as the difference this time.”
— Dr. Lev Borodovsky
“Once people believe there’s inflationary pressure, behavior changes—and so you could have a resurgence of inflation. That’s why the Fed will be cautious even after they stop hiking rates.”
— Dr. Lev Borodovsky
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