Taper Tantrums and Fiscal Cliffs: Weaning Markets off Pandemic Largesse

Featured Guests

Alessandra Tocco

President, New York Alternative Investment Roundtable

Alessandra Tocco brings over 30 years of excellence in the alternatives investment industry, steering NY-ALT’s critical thought leadership and convenings for top-tier investors and global fund managers. Previously Managing Director at Good Hill Partners and J.P. Morgan (capital advisory, branding, consulting), she’s developed industry-defining strategies in fixed income and macro investing. Alessandra's deep capital markets experience and reputation for connecting the brightest minds make her a recognized influencer among Fortune 1000 clients and fund executives.

Daniel Sternoff

Senior Managing Director, Medley Global Advisors Head of Macro Content, Energy Aspects

Daniel Sternoff is a sought-after macro strategist, advising C-suite leaders, sovereign entities, and institutional allocators at the intersection of global politics, monetary policy, and energy. With over two decades in high-impact roles at Medley Global Advisors, Energy Aspects, Macro Advisory Partners, and Reuters, he’s shaped perspectives for top funds navigating geopolitical, regulatory, and fiscal crosswinds. Daniel’s expertise covers macro policy, oil markets, China, and the evolving energy space, positioning him as a primary source for investor edge in turbulent times.

Key Insights From This Episode

Resilience of U.S. Growth

Despite talk of “peak growth”, the U.S. economy maintains strong momentum, with consumer balance sheets, capex, and jobs robustly above trend—decisively challenging secular stagnation narratives.

Inflation: Transitory or Trouble?

The Federal Reserve’s leadership is grappling with inflation risks amid supply-demand mismatches and reopening shocks; policymakers emphasize vigilance, especially watching rents and wages for lasting impacts.

Policy Shifts and Fed Action

Consensus within the Fed is shifting—dovish voices are now more bullish on jobs, with the likelihood of asset purchase tapering moving closer, potentially followed by quicker rate normalization if inflation persists.

Fiscal Dynamics Transforming Markets

Congressional moves on bipartisan infrastructure and budget reconciliation will inject fiscal stimulus well above pre-pandemic levels, creating tailwinds for financial services and alternative investments.

Strategic Positioning Amid Uncertainty

Asset managers are urged to prepare for evolving market paradigms: flexibility, acute policy analysis, and rebalancing toward sectors benefiting from sustained capex, housing booms, and demographic shifts are critical.

Labor Market Evolution

With job openings surpassing unemployment, rising wages, and participation rates still recovering, the labor market remains central to the Fed’s timing decisions—offering both opportunity and risk.