NYAIR Episode 55
Jim O’Sullivan on the U.S. Economy Amidst COVID, Vaccines & New Political Leadership
Kick off the year with leading economic forecaster Jim O’Sullivan as he breaks down what’s next for the U.S. economy. This episode dives deep into the recovery timeline, labor market shifts, stimulus impact, inflation, and how new political leadership in Washington may shape growth, workforce, and financial markets in the months ahead. With practical, data-driven analysis and real talk about risk, it’s a must-listen episode for asset managers, allocators, and investors seeking clarity in a volatile world.
Featured Guests
Jim O’Sullivan
Former Chief U.S. Macro Strategist, TD Securities
Jim O’Sullivan is recognized as one of America’s top economic forecasters, named MarketWatch Forecaster of the Year 12 times, and a leading voice in macro strategy. As Chief U.S. Macro Strategist at TD Securities, Jim guided clients through every major economic cycle, drawing on experience as Chief U.S. Economist at High Frequency Economics, UBS, JP Morgan, and MF Global. With master’s degrees from Queen’s University (Kingston, Ontario) and Trinity College, Dublin, his analysis blends unmatched technical depth with accessible insight.
Key Insights From This Episode
COVID Recovery Is Uneven and Long-Term
Despite a rebound, U.S. employment remains 10 million below pre-pandemic levels. Service sectors still lag, and it will take years to return to full labor market strength.
Vaccines Bring Optimism, But Uncertainty Remains
Vaccination is key to reopening, but variants and delayed rollouts may create additional economic bumps before sustained growth kicks in.
Fiscal Stimulus Fuels the Bounce—But the Hole Remains
Historic deficit spending has supported a faster recovery, but peak stimulus may already be behind us. Further packages will likely be smaller and require tough political compromise.
Inflation: More Bark Than Bite—For Now
COVID has produced temporary inflation patterns (goods up, travel/hospitality down), but overall core inflation remains tame. Real risk of runaway inflation is still several years out, not imminent.
Fed Policy Locks In “Lower for Longer”
Interest rates will stay near zero for the foreseeable future; the Fed wants to see sustained labor market recovery and a real inflation pickup—well above 2%—before tightening.
Markets Test New Highs on Optimism, Not Earnings
High stock valuations are justified by ultra-low rates and stimulus, but any reversal in Fed policy or earnings disappointment could quickly reverse sentiment.
Access the Full Conversation
Unlock the full episode audio and download the custom insights summary deck. Get straight talk on employment, the impact of stimulus, inflation drivers, and market signals from one of America’s most accurate forecasters—critical listening for investors, risk managers, and strategic leaders.
Soundbites Worth Saving
“The U.S. economy is still down 10 million jobs—even after 12 million bounced back. It’s a long road ahead for the labor market.”
— Jim O’Sullivan
“Don’t expect the Fed to flinch. They want to see real, sustained progress—on jobs and inflation—before even talking about tightening.”
— Jim O’Sullivan
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