NYAIR Episode 52
The Epidemiology of Volatility
Dive into a must-hear episode of NY-AIR, the New York Alternative Investment Roundtable podcast, as we decode the epidemiology of volatility and reveal why the era of regime shifts demands new tools and fresh thinking. With perspectives from veteran professionals in quantitative investing, machine learning, and risk analytics, discover actionable techniques to identify, adapt to, and even exploit rapid transitions in modern markets.
Featured Guests
Rick Roche
CAIA — Managing Director, Little Harbor Advisors
Rick Roche is a leading authority in alternative investment strategy and quantitative analytics, with more than four decades building transformative solutions for RIA platforms, hedge funds, and institutional investors. As Managing Director at Little Harbor Advisors, Rick crafts volatility-informed investment strategies powered by artificial intelligence and big data. He also leads Roche Invest AI, integrating machine learning for the next generation of asset management. A chartered alternative investment analyst (CAIA), Rick’s career spans groundbreaking initiatives in research integration, product distribution, and education for quant-driven investing.
Steven Lerit
CFA — Head of Portfolio Risk, Washington Crossing Advisors
Steven Lerit, CFA, is a recognized leader in portfolio risk analytics and quantitative investment management. As Head of Portfolio Risk at Washington Crossing Advisors (WCA), Steven develops proprietary risk models and data science tools that enhance portfolio construction and risk oversight for private clients, high-net-worth individuals, and institutional portfolios. His previous roles include Head of Quantitative Risk for Investment Management at UBS and SVP at Bank of America. Steven is highly active in the CFA Society New York, serving as Co-Chair of the Performance & Risk Analytics Group and is a longtime contributor to investment performance measurement standards internationally.
Key Insights From This Episode
Epidemiology Models: A Lens for Volatility
Understanding how the spread of ideas and volatility mirrors viral transmission gives professionals a powerful metaphor for spotting and managing market shifts.
Super-Spreaders and Market Regimes
Elite investors, industry voices, and policy influencers act as “super-spreaders,” transmitting volatility and new market paradigms far faster than in the past.
Adaptation Over Prediction
Top portfolio managers stress flexible scenario planning, recognizing that rigid predictions are outpaced by unpredictable regime changes and behavioral bias in the marketplace.
Machine Learning Reveals the Hidden Risks
Applying unsupervised learning, PCA, and cluster analysis unlocks correlations and risk exposures traditional models may never detect, especially in rapidly-evolving markets.
Liquidity Matters—Until It Doesn’t
Liquidity Matters—Until It Doesn’t
Access the Full Conversation
Get the full episode recording and a downloadable insights deck packed with practical frameworks to future-proof your investment strategy. Learn to spot regime changes, apply machine learning for edge, and make data-driven decisions amid the chaos. A must-listen for asset managers, risk professionals, and anyone navigating the alternative investment frontier.
Soundbites Worth Saving
“““We’ve had one of the fastest 30% drawdowns in S&P history—then the fastest recovery. That’s a clear sign of rapid regime change.”
— Rick Roche, CAIA
“Traditional risk models have a hard time detecting regime shifts. That’s why we turn to machine learning as a supplement, not a replacement.”
— Steven Lerit, CFA
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