NYAIR Episode 18
Predictions For The U.S. and Global Economies From High Frequency Economics’ Jim O’Sullivan and Carl Weinberg
What’s next for the US and global economies in a time of unprecedented uncertainty and change? In this rigorous NY-AIR episode, two of the most respected names in macro research—Carl Weinberg and Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics—deliver data-driven forecasts, dissect global trade realignments, and answer pressing questions from a senior finance audience. Gain critical context on the economic cycles, risk indicators, and tectonic global shifts that will define the coming decade.
Featured Guests
Jim O’Sullivan
Chief US Economist, High Frequency Economics
Widely ranked as one of the most accurate forecasters in the industry, Jim O’Sullivan has led US macro analysis for HFE for over two decades. His award-winning insights are trusted by portfolio managers, policymakers, and economists worldwide—known for clarity on employment, inflation, Fed policy, and cyclical turnpoints.
Carl Weinberg
Founder & Chief International Economist, High Frequency Economics
As the founder of HFE, Carl Weinberg is revered for big-picture vision and an unflinching focus on global currency, growth, and trade regimes. Carl’s ability to connect real-time developments in China, Europe, emerging markets, and policy to investable outcomes makes him a trusted advisor to the world’s leading investors and central banks.
Key Insights From This Episode
US Expansion: Not Dead Yet
Despite political drama, Fed tightening, and looming cycle length, the expansion remains underpinned by resilient growth, robust labor markets, and accommodative policy.
Tax Reform, Deficit, and Growth Predictions
Latest White House and congressional tax plans suggest modest short-term GDP boosts, but skepticism is warranted for claims of sustained sharp acceleration.
Labor Market: Beyond the Unemployment Headline
Both panelists dig into participation, involuntary part-time work, and underemployment—explaining why labor conditions are tight, but still have hidden slack.
When Will the Next Recession Hit?
Historical cycles indicate expansions end after Fed hiking, not old age—and a flat or inverted yield curve remains the clearest red flag for timing downturns.
China’s Grand Strategy and the New Silk Road
China’s massive “Belt and Road” trade corridors, industrial policy (Made in China 2025), and the move away from the petro-dollar signal a profound reorientation of global growth, risk, and markets.
European and Global Realignment
Europe’s stuck in a “liquidity trap,” but China’s outbound investment and trade creations could offer the external boost needed—while Brexit’s main casualty is likely the City of London.
Access the Full Conversation
Unlock the episode audio and download an exclusive insights deck for CEOs, strategists, CIOs, and asset allocators—packed with proprietary charts, risk signals, and practical takeaways for global macro positioning.
Soundbites Worth Saving
“Expansions don’t die of old age. They end when the Fed tightens too far and the yield curve inverts.”
— Jim O’Sullivan
“The Silk Road is about much more than trains—it’s about creating the world’s new trade arteries, with China at the center and Europe as the key beneficiary.”
— Carl Weinberg
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